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-run, healthy economy. that does have some effect on monetary policy. one of the most powerful tools we have is bringing down mortgage rates and stimulating home buying, construction, and related industries. so that is an issue we take into account. i would say one thing, which is that as the housing industry has strengthened and home prices have gone up, that has actually brought some people into the credit box, in the sense that the number of people, for example, who are underwater on their mortgages, is declining, as house prices go up. so as people have bigger down payments, bigger equity in their homes, they become more creditworthy. so to some extent, not -- i don't want to overstate it, but to some extent, monetary policy, by strengthening the housing market, helping support house prices, is bringing more people into the mortgage market. >> fox business. the stock market has been hitting all-time highs. it's recovered all of its losses from the financial crisis. i just want to know from you if i still have time to get in. but, seriously, how do you feel about that? is it good? is it b
economist. we're talking extraordinary weakness here, especially in the two most important economies, germany and france. >> yes. what we saw towards the beginning of the year, what we were hoping was we would see in the u.s. in the second quarter and maybe a third number. what these number res sharing, while we're seeing the rate of contraction to ease in the third quarter, around 4.6% declines. what we saw at the end of the quarter, regathering momentum and that puts the usa in a weak position heading into the second quarter. >> i was going to ask, too, the there's any way, these are sentiment surveys. these are not going on out and measuring production. what it does, it oles the companies themselves, asks them about data. pretty reliable whether it's the u.s. version of these or the global ones with tracking equity prices. and the point here is, this is the first reading of sentiment in march. yet it doesn't seem as though this was necessarily nud by the latest out of cypress. this would have all fallen before this happened. >> yeah. it's asking for hard information whether it is
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company with extraordinarily small economy. the fact it would precipitate a run with the greek banks or italian banks and bring down the entire system in europe, fumbling along, kicking the can down the road is really pretty fried and we know from experience these events, whether in the balkins with the shooting of an arch duke or whether in cyprus with the shooting of a banking system can lead to fairly significant consequences for the entire european continent and us. >> so far, the worst-case scenario hasn't happened yet. so far. that's good. let me ask you, steve forbes. do you believe that the united states can make itself immune? are we strong enough economically, and financially, to withstand the kind of worst-case scenario that senator gregg discussed? >> the answer is no. we should have learned that from 2008 when these dominos start to topple. it hits everybody. and this is what is so inexplicable. why did the germans draw the line on this, for sheer domestic political reasons. they don't want to be bailing out russian oil gargs. they have an election this year. they have k
and teach you. so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. i got two of them here. you've got the good economy. tremendous housing numbers, miraculous retail sales, terrific oil and gas markets. you have the bad economy. weakening commodity prices. slow commercial real estate business. really bad world commerce outlook. real soft information technology sales. you mix them all up together and you get the absolute perfect environment for the fed reserve to stay stock market friendly. that's exactly what happened today. ben bernanke allowed the averages to power higher. dow gained 56 points. the s&p rising today, nasdaq jumping .78%. it's not sleight of hand or alchemy at work here, despite what critics say when they constantly slam the fed. >> boo! >> bernanke is not playing a game of move the stock market higher by simply continuing to keep the competition from bonds incredibly weak. he's got a real good reason for doing what he's doing, which is staying the course, keeping rates low. that reason? 1937. see, ben bernanke is a rigorous guy. he's a professor and a genuine scholar of american financial histor
correction? with the rising economy and profits this rally still has legs. also in year three of obama care premiums and insurance costs are rising sky-high. so are taxes. and small business costs are reducing profits by as much as 65% according to one small business owner we will talk to tonight. and the virtues of a free market capitalism that we talk about every night on this show are now forbidden fruit at stanford university. a popular long running pro capitalist course at that school has now been cancelled. what is up with that? "the kudlow report" begins right now. >>> first up, a major vote in the cyprus parliament helping to get that country closer to a teal with the european union. michelle caruso-cabrera joins us from cyprus again this evening with the very latest. good evening, michelle. >> reporter: larry, lawmakers here in cyprus taking a huge step tonight to prevent the financial collapse of their country. they pass ad law that will allow for the restructuring of their banks. this essentially means their sickest and largest banks will be down sized and made more healthy. this
economy. its banks are not highly connected with the rest of the international financial system. there is no risk of contagion here. >> adam, actually, of all the ideas you laid out, which do you think is the least bad of all those solutions? is it going ahead and letting the banks fail? >> that would be my preferred route. failure implies that the banks can't pay their depositors. they are restructuring. they will be very orderly. basically, the banks would be closed for two days. what would come out is when they reopen, the depositors would be the large depositors because the small depositors would be fully protected. the large depositors would be the owners of a bank and they would have deposits of somewhere between 50 1k3 60 or 70% of their money and the rest of the shares in the new bank. the banks would be solvent. the banks could be highly capitalized and they would then have access to the ecb for refinancing to provide any liquidity. >> and the fallout from that would be that the russians -- >> and basically -- >> the fallout for that is that the russians are the ones wh
those economies dramatically, weakens those countries. and it also weakens italy. >> you're saying potential contagion. finally, how does it get resolved? michelle is talking about a good bank/bad bank, nobody pays on deposits up to $100,000. the bailout is 10 billion euros from the european -- ecb. the bail-in is about $6 billion euros. so greece is looking for whatever they're looking for, $4 billion, $5 billion. or does europe bail that out even more? >> the biggest factor of all, dan and i were talking a couple minutes ago, the depositors above 100,000 will lose 40% to 50%. >> those are russians. they're going to be pissed off. >> the great systemic problem of giant bank failures is somewhat eliminated by what they're putting forward now. >> what do you think, dan? does this work? >> for our viewers i don't think it matters. the specifics are super interesting, we're going to go have a drink. what matters to people at home, what matters to the larger story is we decided that people's property in banks was not their own. >> in europe or in the u.s., too? >> in europe only. >> th
part of the economy that's being left at a tivitate now, and where's the exit strategy? >> and i think revenue could be an issue. oracle is out with its third quarter. revenue came at 8.6 billion versus 9.3 billion, an estimate. jon fortt has all the numbers right now. >> let's drill down to some numbers, maria. exactly where oracle missed, because this is a miss. on new license and cloud revenue, the street was looking for 2.57 billion. they came in at $2.3. on hardware product revenue, the street wanted somewhere around $800 million in research. they came in at $671 million. that's well below their guided range on that. and on non-gap operating margin, they came in at 47%, which is right about where the street was looking. they don't give guidance until the call, but this is really important, because they're guiding into their biggest quarter, their fiscal q4. also, larry ellison has said the hardware business was going to have a transition quarter in q3. we should expect to start seeing it growing in q4, given this hardware number, it's going to be especially important for them to b
to give the state all of our resources which would be at least 3 billion euros to help the economy. maybe a little bit of help from heaven. back over to you. >> the archbishop, this is something people should go look up this piece of the story. this is a fascinating piece. he's seen as this spiritual leader there who has been quite vocal. he's been out there talking saying let's get out of the euro and go back to the pound. do we have carolyn? can i briefly ask what it's like on the ground there? we understand that it may be several more days, not just thursday, before people can access their money in cyprus. >> absolutely. initially we know that banks were going to be closed up until tomorrow but at this point there's a lot of speculation that banks will be closed up until tuesday because monday is another bank holiday and at this point it's very, very uncertain that we'll get a viable plan b to get the bailout deal in place at this point it doesn't look like we'll get it by tomorrow. at this point we are expecting that banks are going to be closed for a little bit longer. of course that
to share with you some views of the economy from our 54 respo respondents. firming housing prices are a game changer. there is something much more self-feeding about recovery this year. could be a turning point. the objepposite from john rober. we believe a recession/economic slowdown is a possibility in the latter half of 2014 or early in 2015. some of the excesses that could cause a recession are beginning to build in the economy. another piece of data, the biggest problems facing our economy, taxes/regulation, 29%. i would say that's a victory given that europe is not in there for fear of recession is not in there. too much deficit reduction, 16%. slow job growth, 12%. too little deficit reduction, 10%. guys, these are more normal problems, i would say, than we've had in the past. the european financial crisis, u.s. financial crisis. sue, i would take a victory, yes, there are problems out there. >> i totally agree with you. it's the first time in a long time we haven't seen europe on a list like that. >> thank you, steve. >> absolutely. thanks, steve. >> sure. >> the markets h
idea. i mean, if you look at cyprus' economy, there are two major factors to that economy. tourism and financial services. you could kill the financial services immediately right there. so it's two underpinnings. almost like when greece was doing smo of the same things. >> but you say it matters because it could spread elsewhere? >> just the thought that somebody thought this was a good idea is scary enough to me, i would think. but it's going to be one of those things. we'll have to watch and see how it folds out. but i've got a feeling it will have to turn itself around fairly quickly. >> michael, what do you think? have you changed any of your behavior in terms of allocating capital, as a result of what we've seen in the last 48 hours? >> no, not really, maria. i still think that cyprus is certainly something to watch. but i think it's just part of the negotiation process, exactly what's happening in greece. we have to watch and see if it accelerates and this idea sweeps around europe, but i doubt that's going to happen. i actually think that europe is starting to present some o
economy. that is the real engine of the economic prosperity. >>> plus the supreme court this week will hear two important cases concerning same sex marriage. shouldn't the black robe masters leave the important social decisions to the states and their democratically elected legislatures or referenda? let the people decide. "the kudlow report" begins right now. >>> first up, in recent weeks, he's become a conservative super hero icon. that following his triumphant speeches at the national prayer service and the cpac political conference. dr. ben carson has a message to roll back obama care, deal with the crushing national debt, and even a bib llically based call r a flat tax. that's what i love. is he the conservative that can save the gop? here is the aforementioned dr. ben carson. director of the pediatric division at john hopkins university. and with us this hour, cnbc contributors keith boykin. as always, dr. carson, great to see you. i'm reading one of many articles that you're retiring in 100 days. i wonder if you would share future plans, especially public service. >> i have
and the new fed forecast for the economy. and the stocks we're focused on this morning, blackberry getting an upgrade at morgan stanley and a note titled why it won't go down and it gets into the best buy bull camp, and calling it the best near-term idea in the sector. let's get straight to fedex. the package delivery company says it earned $1.23 a share in the fiscal third quarter and below wall street forecasts. fedex says the customers were choosing slower transit services. this does happen, of course, after a massive run in the transports. >> one of the things that amazes me about fedex is they keep missing and they get loved a few days later. missed and gets loved. it's still regarded as being a profit machine. they have this restructuring that people like very much. people feel it's only a matter of time before someone steps up to the more expensive freight. to me, my charitable trust owns ups. ups has the expectations lower. scott davis always says negative things. >> melissa hit the nail on the head. the stock had a big run and the two guys were going head to head over what was in
the to and improving global economy. everybody has thought, oh, europe is getting better. and the reason that they have is those credit spreads have gotten better. the european central bank have pushed those credit spreads down. the thesis has been that the global economy is getting better, but it's not getting were the. all of the economies in europe are deteriorating. japan is deteriorating. our market's moving higher because of money printing. once that -- once we get a spillover effect, some sort of a watershed moment in europe, you're going to want to take your assets off the table. >> well, that's a good point, but at this point, eric marshall, do you want to be takingoney off the table now? and if so, where do you put it? >> well, i think the important thing here, you know, stocks have been moving up over the last few months, really in response to improving corporate earnings. so i think you really have to focus on individual company fundamentals. and at the hodges fund, we really see this as the golden age for active portfolio management. you know, over the last few years, investors have really
a little bit. >> that's a good point. for a long time the bears have been insisting that the global economy is not as healthy as this teflon stock market in the united states would indicate, and now they've got some ammunition. two companies from fed ex and from caterpillar. now, caterpillar had dismal three-month sales numbers. really shocked a lot of people. fed ex, of course, had disappointing earnings situation, lower than expected international volume. now people are saying, see, we told you. here are who big companies who are saying it's not as big as everybody said. deere got a downgrade from wells fargo. i'll talk more about that in the 2:00. a little bit of good news on housing. keeps rolling along. lenore, 34% increase in building. >> we'll see you back in a few minutes. ty, we'll send it back up to you. >> thank you very much. bob just gave you a very clear shot at the market picture, so what's driving it? well, obviously three developing stories and we're going to cue you in on all of them right now. the fed, steve liesman is in washington. russia's financial overtures toward cy
's face it. cyprus is a small economy. the smallest thread can unravel the entire tapestry of the euro zone. the size of cyprus is not the point here. the point is the principle, precedent and risk of contagion spiralling out of control. >> that's how we see it here. thank you, charles dallara. now it's time to ask the money question. will cyprus and the eu woes kill our economic optimism? we'll debate that next up. the real loser could be crooked russian billionaires whose money-laundering operations in cyprus run the country. that's why vladimir putin is so angry about this bank tax. feel like capitalism may be the best bet to prosperity, but there is not one ounce of free market capitalism in this cyprus story. i'm larry kudlow. we'll be right back. [ female announcer ] what if the next big thing, isn't a thing at all? it's lots of things. all waking up. connecting to the global phenomenon we call the internet of everything. ♪ it's going to be amazing. and exciting. and maybe, most remarkably, not that far away. we're going to wake the world up. and watch, with eyes wide, as it ge
times the size of its economy without having some kind of bail structure in a solution, it becomes very difficult. and i think that understanding is quite clear among investors. so from a longer term perspective, i think there's a positive element here which is a more substantial bailin in this solution. >> valentin, what kind of exposure do you have in europe at this point and what changes have you made in regard to how the cypriot levy is handled? >> it is creating a bit of uncertainty. clearly, it comes from lingering uncertainty over the political situation in italy. so all in all, it makes the bit more cautious on europe. not so much on our overall willingness to take risks. we're still overweight global real estate, but we have still put down our exposure in europe, so we are now under weight european equities. we are cautious on peripheral bull markets and european fixed income space. so that is the main changes. still on the regional allocation that we have, but not so much altering our overall willingness to look for risk. i think in general, the broadening of the global cycle
and that will lead to a decline in the money that is slowing around the economy and that means lower output essentially. so what we're looking at here in cyprus is that the retracted recession is not depression. let's continue with the discussion with professor pisteritus. thank you so much for joining us this morning. just how do you read the deal? did the germans win in the end? >> well, i would have to agree with you that what the germans wanted has happened in the end. it's an incredibly bad deal for the eurozone. cyprus is table because you are taking away from the island more than half its gdp. you're destroying small enterprises and the sector which accounted for 45% of gdp. expect unemployment to shoot up. we are not sure what the next step in this model is going to to be, but what has even wider implications is that the for the first time within the eurozone, depositors had to bail out ailing banks. and that happened in the 1930s. there were bank runs. we introduced deposit insurance. we introduced polling schemes for risk. in europe, we are headed for a banking union next year so
insolvent. the banks in cyprus are huge, eight times the size of the economy. consider that here in the united states. our banking system is roughly one-time the size of our economy. what we're waiting to see next are they going to get this through parliament and get it done? it is so controversial they're trying to find out different ways to make it less controversial. impose the tax on larger shareholders to a much greater degree. it was originally 9.9% and you go to 12%. if you didn't want to tax the small guys at all you'd have to go to 15% or 16%. this is the scene when the president walked into the palace headquarters. there were people there with no written on their hand and this says merkel stole our money. keep in mind, european union will still give them 10 billion euros and they were trying to come up to reduce the original size from 17 billion euros. the other thing to keep in mind, by taxing depositors they're taxing a lot of foreigners and a lot of russians who had kept their money. the thing is will the rest of europe, will small depositors across the rest of europ
and howard ward. >> economy is getting better, capital chase returns and stocks continue to trend higher although there's profit taking here and there. >> okay. we'll take that to the bank. the key question about europe. it's all about credit quality. >> who do we have to worry about? >> spanish, italian and greece. >> you're very worried. >> people have to start doing their work. europe never did the work of fixing bank solvency in the first place. >> gentlemen, thank you for being here. >> happy monday. >> that does it for us today. make sure you join us tomorrow. right now it's time for "squawk on the street." ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ >>> welcome to the last week of the first quarter. good morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with melissa lee and jim kraker. futures reflecting the relief of the cyprus deal. a similar picture in europe where the italian tenure is now below where it was before those italian elections and a mixed picture in asia this morning. the nikkei up about 1.5%. the road map begin with the eurozone that did not collapse over the weekend so natura
home building numbers today too. >> that too. we're in a niche market. the u.s. has had their economy outperform other economies and i think it's a flight to safety relative to the u.s. markets on one hand and it's an unwind from the bond market and risk exposure going forward to rate changes on the other hand. so it's both a flight to safety as well as, you know, what's really going on domestically and people are looking at a twist now with the fed and what their posture will be heading forward. >> i'll be back, adobe earnings at the top of the hour. >> take care, maria. >> what do you think? we're finishing positive here. this market doesn't want to go up? you think some of that's short covering? >> i think that's what we're see right now. finishing up the day. right now people will have to play it cautiously. we haven't seen the end of the cyprus thing. we have some negotiating going on from russia. the impact of that, as you mentioned, is a little minor relative to the size and scope of them, but it's whether or not that moves into italy, spain, as we've all been talking about. >>
to the important. they are a leading indicator. they are such an integral part of what moves stuff in the economy. airlines are doing very well, but others are not. fedex, just an example of that. does that trouble you for the market here? >> yeah, it does trouble me. and going forward, we're going to watch those earnings closely, but you need a good transportation sector. we've had a nice little push, but now it seems to be getting a little weak. >> at the end of the day, $100 million for stocks for sale earlier. not a major number, but what are you expecting as we close out this day, down 86 points? does this get worse in the next minute? >> it could get a little worse. all the negative things considered, things aren't bad, down 80, 90 points at the end of the day. >> i'm going to go. we've got some numbers after the close. nike, we're waiting on, second hour of the "closing bell." see you tomorrow. alan, good to talk to you. >> you're skeptical on this rally? >> i am. >> is there a level that you need to get down to and you'll want to get back into this market again? >> you know, it is. it's f
the day. from the economy to earnings now. we get a number of interesting quarterly reports due today as well. before the bell, we'll hear from fedex, general mills and lennar and this afternoon we have oracle. a lot to chew on for the markets. s&p by the way coming off its first three-day decline of 2013. take a look at u.s. equity futures at this hour. green arrows across the board. and then of course there's cyprus. the country's leaders are holding crisis talks today trying it avert a financial meltdown. the parliament rejected an unprecedented tax on bank deposits. that was a key part of the eu bailout terms. the finance minister is in moscow today with mounting speculation that russia could step in with a safety plan to safeguard russian deposits in cyprus. steve sedgwick is in moscow where he caught up with the finance minister there an hour or so ago. steve? >> they turned to russians once again. there's a loan on the table from russians dating back from 2011 so it's not the exception to it the rule for the cypriots to turn to the russians. the russians themselves are indignan
. let's take a pause to digest all of what's going on. >> there are two economies here. kb homes, lennar, sherwin williams, whirlpool. there is the economy defined by fedex, by caterpillar and this morning by yorele cal. i was on the call last night. the cisco downgrade today. this dichotomy is allowing i think bernanke to not have to taper off. at the same time it calls into question how weak is that international market. seems very weak. >> did we get largely what we wanted from the fed yesterday? there were no big surprises within that. >> no. i think that was the point to not have any big surprises. i think there was a poignant moment yesterday that i think wasn't talked about enough where someone asked imputedly, i felt, because ben bernanke deserves better -- do you know anybody that's unemployed? do you note price of a gallon of milk? he came back, yes, i have a relative on unemployment. he's going to get unemployment down then we'll talk about tapering. until then we are playing a parlor game with the fed. i believe bernanke when he says these things. >> there's no reason to beli
ready for the next hour. bill, good to see you. have a great weekend. by the way, does a bad economy bring euphoria to the walking dead? >> i think it does. >> we'll talk to the creator later. >> that would be her zombie walk there, as she moves on to the next hour of the "closing bell". >> do earnings matter or is it still about the fed? >> it seems like earnings mattered yesterday a little bit. i don't think cyprus was the reason we sold out. are they going to matter going forward? i don't think so. not for the next three months. the fed is still the major factor in this. cyprus isn't a factor yet. earnings aren't a factor. the fed has definitely cleared the -- >> it's about liquidity in this market. >> absolutely. i would like to see more liquidity as far as volume goes. you get an 85-point rally off yesterday's sell-off, small volume, not much of a factor. but cyprus will lead the day monday morning in a short week. >> all right. thank you, matt, very much. all right, we've got a market coming back a little bit. needed to be up 92 to be positive for the week. we're ten points awa
to the size of its economy. their banks are almost all entirely deposits. at least the two ones that were failing. most of the other banks in europe have a lot more junior and senior debt. big fat cushions that sit between potential losses and uninsured depositors. so the likelihood of this particular situation happening again? highly unlikely. but you're going to have to be more careful. that's the bottom line. bill? >> michelle, the question we're all wondering about here in the states and i guess around the world is will the cypriot banks will able to open tomorrow as had been expected? >> no. no. they've finally put out a statement and acknowledged what we were all beginning to realize would be true. they cannot. they're going to open up the two troubled banks on thursday, they hope. they claim they're going to open up nontroubled banks as well. that's going to be difficult. remember, banks talk to each other, right? there's all kinds of intrabank business that happens. it's going to be slightly problematic. we'll have to see how that plays out. plus we're going to see if there are ru
of the economy that are not that strong and i don't know what the sequester will bring in the month of april. >> look, the data say things are better, and i think the fed will be under a lot of pressure because interest rates are headed higher. >> at some point the fed will have to acknowledge that -- and they have -- to your point, they changed the language a little bit. it's a moderate recovery and it's a strengthening recovery. words like that. >> right. >> at some point they're going to have to acknowledge what we all seem to know which is -- they're not great, but things are getting better. now will inflation pick up and that, of course, is the fed's number one mandate. will inflation pick up until we see jobs pick up because wage inflation comes with excess demand from workers. i don't know. that's the big trillion dollar question mark. >> commodity inflation whether it be corn or copper and the strong dollar will contain inflation that's going up a great deal. housing is stabilizing and not really in the numbers. i want to take issue with some of what you said. i think we all think th
's on -- you know, it's 0.2% of their economy and, you know, we're worried about whether there's any ripple all the way over to us. >> it may want be an instant market reaction, though. it may be something that's more of a concern about whether there would be other countries that step out of the eu. >> don't you think the markets could anticipate whether there would be further trouble or not? >> i don't know. i think this is -- >> we would be seeing it if it was really -- if they he can't sell off in europe, we shouldn't be looking at it at all for our markets here. >> no. michelle, what's that? >> i know you're over there, but you don't care. >> the one ripple effect i can think of is -- the one ripple effect i can think of is that if when they wind down this bank, there's some wealthy russians or wealthy companies that had money in there that they would lose a substantial portion of, perhaps 50% of the uninsured deposits if they do a wind down. if they have a margin call, you know what i'm saying? some kind of ripple effect maybe related to a russian company or a russian individual. but when
term, do you think this economy improves second half or do you think it slows down? >> i think, as a matter of fact, we're probably in the second quarter. you'll start seeing slow growth. but i think as this summer winds, you know, goes through, we'll start seeing some growth again. i do think that by the end of the year, we're going to be not a lot higher, but i think we'll be at all-time highs as the year goes on. probably the the end of the summer, the third quarter going into the fourth quarter. i'm positive. >> so bill, because the s&p capital iq estimates call for 0.6% growth the first quarter and then it goes up to 7%. so they're expecting profits to actually reaccelerate second half. >> lee munson, you're the only outside guest buying stocks here. what are you buying here? >> you know, i'm just focusing where i need to get some more exposure. i'm focusing first on emerging markets. they've lagged year-to-date. i think they can outperform by december 31st. i like the emerging markets to add more money today. i would also say, add more money to the s&p 500 today. the only
. that's good for 125th in the world. per sapt a gdp, $26,900. 71% of the economy service based. tourism big there. 20% is industry. 8.5% agriculture, mostly olives and citrus. in a nut shell, finance ministers are going to hold a conference call this evening to discuss a proposed bailout for the cypriot banks. the plan started this weekend included taking money from regular bank deposit, large and small, 6.75% to almost 10% if you've got more than 100,000 euros in an account over there. why are those banks in cyprus in trouble? they were heavily exposed to greek debt and we all know what happened there with the greek debt, both public and private. then the cypriot banks were national as ied to prevent an need colorado lapse. european regs, that's where the rest of europe comes in. instead of sending a bailout like it did in spain and greece, germany wants to raise money from actual people with deposits in those banks. here's how goldman sachs' paul o'neill summed it up on "squawk" this morning. >> i got off a plane from singapore saturday morning and i thought my jet lag was up but i wa
good performance of the german economy throughout the year. actually, we are forecasting a growth from around 2% quarter on quarter. and this is on the back of very strong labor markets. >> 2% growth in which quarter? >> basically on average. >> over the year. >> no. for the full year, i would have 11%. but quarter on quarter, up around 2%. why is that? very strong labor market, very strong export. i think more importantly, we should look at next month's bmis. the u.s. data came very strong. we should see a strong performance in germany on the back of the exports. >> you could make that argument on the pmi in germany and it was surprisingly weak. a deep contraction in the fourth quarter was going to rebound now called into question. >> i think this will be the growth. but you've seen in the labor market, you've seen hard data, actually, a strong performance of the economy. so we -- i think we should not expect a continuous increasing pmi, a continuous increase in ifo business index. i think the big question is the next one, in my opinion, just what they said, the u.s. bring very strong
't it? the economy is starting to improve. we're still seeing -- you know, you're talking two years out. i think the market's going to be at 17,000 in two years. i'm talking the opposite direction. i'm not a super, super bull. but in two years, i definitely think we're going to see, you know, lower unemployment. >> 3,300 down here. 17,000 up. >> that's a huge -- >> who's right? huh? >> i am. >> there you -- thank you, peter. >> thank you. >> see you later. heading toward the close. a day very much dictated by events overseas. the bailout of the cyprus banks seem to be a catalyst to the upside this morning. until the dutch finance minister had his say. but we are finishing well off the lows of the session. the dow was down 117 at the low of the day. and we're down about 50 right now. stay tuned. super bear harry dent is joining us on the second hour of "the closing bell." >>> welcome to "the closing bell," i'm sue herera in for maria bartiromo. bill will join me in a moment. not a great finish to the first trading day of the week. it started out so promising on news of a bailout agreemen
can be the linchpin in our economy over here. it's ridiculous. >> right. it should be a smaller problem. they could take care of this in other ways. they could print money or -- >> i'm not going to pick a state here. it would probably be a southern state, but a poor southern state cannot take the down the united states. >> a western state because they're not awake yet. but here we are. out of the 22 -- cyprus? >> you thought greece was small, cyprus is -- >> come on, cypriots? i remember some conflicts. i thought it was a golf course, which would be a much bigger problem to me. >> let's introduce our guest host this morning, kenny dichter, co-founder of avian. why do i always mispronounce it? because you've been b drinking it. >> avione is airplane in french and spanish. >> can we get a full shot of this? he's now the chairman of juicepress. i have been drinking this stuff for the past week, virtually, five days. >> and you know what? your skin tone has never looked better. >> no food up until this saturday. you've been doing this now -- >> 22 days. >> i've made my cleanse zero
crude prices can tell us about the broader economy. stick around. ♪ ♪ no two people have the same financial goals. pnc works with you to understand yours and help plan for your retirement. visit a branch or call now for your personal retirement review. at a hertz expressrent kiosk, you can rent a car without a reservation... and without a line. now that's a fast car. it's just another way you'll be traveling at the speed of hertz. all stations come over to mithis is for real this time. step seven point two one two. verify and lock. command is locked. five seconds. three, two, one. standing by for capture. the most innovative software on the planet... dragon is captured. is connecting today's leading companies to places beyond it. siemens. answers. >>> good morning. welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm joe kernen along with becky quick and andrew ross sorkin. u.s. equity futures at this hour after giving back about 62, well off the lows yesterday. indicated that a bounce a little, but a time can happen between thou and 9:30 on the east coast. there's energy, you see crude
. make no mistake housing and -- two big drivers of this economy and i think we'll be pleasantly surprised when we get this housing starts number. of course, the fed bull from hell crowd will ratchet up their bets. that lightning will strike on wednesday if they see a strong number. and i think they will be, unfortunately, unpleasantly surprised when they see it because nobody in that crowd wants to see any good. i actually like things that are good. old fashioned. housing's so strong that it's lifting all boats including brunswick by the way and the housewares. so let's listen to william sonoma conference call on their earnings on tuesday to be sure the carryover's intact. now, i'm thinking this may be long in our ever expanding great index or maybe it's the greater gatsby index. i once bought a pot for like $200. it was a big, round cast iron, red thing and then i saw it at the jersey shore outlet for almost half the price. and i am still kicking myself. eighth anniversary, nothing's changed. now, we use a ton of gauges to measure things like retail sales and employment around
tightening the money market and the liquidities condition in the economy and where we flexed in the capital markets these days. >> great point. raymond yung joining us. thanks very much. a reminder again that what we're seeing in markets today isn't just about cyprus. it could potentially be that seasonal time of year once again where global sitters come to the fore. >>> straight ahead, find out why our next guest says the bank robbery is nothing more than legalized robbery. ery. ♪ (train horn) vo: wherever our trains go, the economy comes to life. norfolk southern. one line, infinite possibilities. there. i said it. they don't have pictures of my kids. they don't have my yoga mat. and still, i feel at home. could it be the flat screen tv? the not so mini fridge? ♪ the different free dinner almost every weeknight? or maybe, it's all of the above. and all the rest. am i home? nope. but it almost feels that way. homewood suites by hilton. be at home. >>> welcome back to "worldwide exchange." stocks falling around the globe with european banks deeply in the red as the cyprus bailout and co
in the 2008 meltdown of the american economy, as of late 2012, there have been several civil suits filed against major wall street financial firms, but not a single criminal prosecution. in this edition, we look back at the 2008 financial crisis and the failure of government regulators to prosecute those who might be criminally responsible. later, lehman brothers bankruptcy investigator anton valukas shares his findings on the collapse of the giant investment bank where no senior official has ever faced charges in the biggest bankruptcy in u.s. history. but first we begin with a nine-month 60 minutes investigation looking for wall street cases that might have prosecutorial merit. in december 2011, steve kroft reported on two such cases. we begin with a woman named eileen foster, a former senior executive at countrywide financial, one of the epicenters of the crisis. >> do you believe that there are people at countrywide who belong behind bars? >> yes. >> do you want to give me their names? >> no. >> would you give their names to a grand jury if you were asked? >> yes. >> but eileen foste
, there will have to be budget cuts behind the sequester. the sequester will not be the end of it, but the economy is recovering. i wouldn't say in spite of what the govern am hment has done. the economy is recovering of its own natural forces now. we've had 12 years of subpar growth. we've had 12 years of up and down with little net progress in the markets and people have forgotten what a strong economy and what a bull market -- a secular bull market looks like, and i think that's generally where we're headed for the next four years, so i'm predicting, as you said, 25,000 on the dow which implies a 15% compound rate of return for the next four years. >> john, can i just come back on the important points that you're making about europe. i'm not sure it's a question of what america trades with whom. it's a question of where the companies that are quoted on this market make their profits and in technology, for example, 40% of those profits are made in europe and therefore europe arguably is more significant than you might think on the trade argument having said that. this is a very interesting week
's remind otherwise of what we're talking about here. the cyprus economy is neither too big or too systemic to fail. fall is basically what the euro group has imposed on it. eats leaving it with almost no viable economy, certainly not to support the size of the economy it will grown to support. the trouble for cyprus being that they're going to have to take that pain and now the years ahead are going to be extremely difficult. we don't even know when banks are going to reopen. last night after those long negotiations when the cyprus manager left, julia stopped and asked him when people are going to be able to get their hands on their money. here is what he had to say. >> bearing that in mind, are the banks going to open on tuesday morning? >> i cannot say that. i cannot say that. it's always a mistake to say something like this when you are not completely sure. there is a lot 06 work to be done, but they will open very soon. >> and how long do you intend to use the capital controls for? >> that also i cannot answer. but, again, our objective to keep them as limited and is as short as possib
has shaken the world of tax havens and the multitrillion dollar economy of offshoring. cyprus, of course, a classic tax haven for the wealthy. russians invested more than $119 billion in cyprus in 2011 alone. they accounted for about a third of total dpos its. the new tax on deposits, let's call it what it is, a wealth tax, has americans worrying about other tax havens. more than $20 trillion held around the world in offshore havens. their favorite tax havens are in the caribbean. namely the cayman islands, bahamas, british virgin islands. globally the channel islands, monaco, switzerland and swing pore. caribbean countries in much better financial shape and more stable legal systems than cyprus. the capital structure of some of these offshore banks remains a mystery. governments in the tiny island nations are notoriously prone to corruption and sudden policy shift. many say cyprus isn't likely to repeat soon. the crisis is another reason offshoring may become more risky for the world's wealthy. >> thank you so much, robert frank. >>> i'll talk exclusively with john thain next
states' economy -- housing is uniquely american. a lot of building products go into homes made right here. think about all the people who touch a home and away from its permit to its sale, builders, laborers, people who make piping, windows, doors, stoves, air conditioning, sinks, toilets, showers, baths, and, of course, electric and plumbing. then there's all the white collar jobs, the banks, sales, lawyers, they all get paid. and the retailers who need to make the place great. to me we will look back on this moment and recognize that while the whoever republican do you say rules imposed on the cypriots certainly damaged confidence in europe and the euro once again, what actually might have mattered in america is that the housing boom was picking up steam at the same time. i know, stupid. brilliant! so what am i asking for here. i'm trying not to be too positive or negative. but i'm definitely playing the skeptic. i worry about what i know and even worry about what i don't know. but most important, i want to emphasize what could drive the market either way. and the bottom line is, i thin
an economy on the brink potentially of collapse. how far might the dominos fall? >>> domino's. i like domino's sugar, but i like milk a lot. i drink a lot of milk. you got money? you got milk? the milk industry as an utterly big problem on its hands. think about it. >>> and new costs. they may be about to get passed on to you in the milk market. the stock market has taken a hit, sue. >> i'm laughing at the "udderly," and it's utterly ridiculous that some things down here are focusing on. we're down a little bit but not as much as one would think given all the headline risk you outlined. the dow jones industrial average is off 54 points, the s&p is off 6. the nasdaq off about 18. gold has a little bounce, 5 bucks or so, and west texas intermediate is trading down about a buck on the trading session. u.s. markets falling due to some less-than-stellar corporate reports in the last 24 # hours. it's also worth noting that european stocks traded lower today on weaker than expected manufacturing data. and, of course, we're basically down from london all the way across to madrid. most of the europea
and i'm concerned if i see the strength in the economy and i see the stocks of companies that benefit from higher rates benefit than the ones getting hurt, then the fed's got to see it, too, right? i think we've come a long way when the fed was clueless and ben bernanke knew nothing. here's the bottom line. the charts say higher rates are coming and they're coming faster than we realize because of a rising economy. that's not going to be slowed by cyprus in particular or europe or even china. that means you got to sell the consumer packaged goods and wait for a price break to buy the insurers like the metlife. sure, the charts can be wrong, but not every single one of them. stay with cramer. >>> coming up, game time. cramer's got a new take on an old favorite family pastime. all this week, he's taking a look at companies with a stranglehold on their industries that may give their stocks a boost. tonight jim's checking out the friendly skies to find out if it's time to take off. [singing] hoveround takes me where i wanna go... where will it send me... one call to hoveround and you'll b
technology in the u.s.? at t. rowe price, we understand the connections of a complex, global economy. it's just one reason over 75% of our mutual funds beat their 10-year lipper average. t. rowe price. invest with confidence. request a prospectus or summary prospectus with investment information, risks, fees and expenses to read and consider carefully before investing. otherworldly things. but there are some things i've never seen before. this ge jet engine can understand 5,000 data samples per second. which is good for business. because planes use less fuel, spend less time on the ground and more time in the air. suddenly, faraway places don't seem so...far away. ♪ arrival. with hertz gold plus rewards, you skip the counters, the lines, and the paperwork. zap. it's our fastest and easiest way to get you into your car. it's just another way you'll be traveling at the speed of hertz. [ticking] >> one of the threats from the great recession was the sudden surge in the number of abandoned houses. vacant homes have become so ruinous to some neighborhoods that one city, cleveland, decided i
. how much of a threat is the happening in europe to the u.s. economy right now? >> also, two huge interviews still to come. meredith whitney tells us why she's very bullish on one of wall street's biggest banks and right now. and cit group chairman and ceo john thain reacts to the rumor that will not go away. namely that his company has been shopping for a suitor. john will try and lay those fears aside once again, those rumors. >> a look at where we stand as we approach this final stretch, final hour of the day. dow jones industrial down about 26 points. had been down 110. we are well off of the lows. nasdaq looks like this. also pretty volatile in the afternoon here. as you can see, it is down about five points at 3243. s&p 500 really similar move here. down five points. equities showing great resilience, pushing back from a triple digit loss today. will the crisis abroad keep the markets in jeopardy? >> you had to be named steve to be on the panel today for the most part. steven water from russell investments, steve sacks. steve liesman is with us. and then there's that guy san
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